Kalshi Government Shutdown Odds in October Slashed
Federal government shutdown odds on Kalshi traded at 15-16 cents as of August 18, implying roughly a 12% chance. That particular market has just north...
Tag : odds
CLARITY Act faces 10% pre midterm odds, Solana policy CEO says
Solana Policy Institute CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine said on Aug. 18 that the CLARITY Act has only a 10% chance of becoming law before the November...
California Governor Odds: Becerra Leads as Primary Day Nears
Prediction markets and polling odds pointed toward Xavier Becerra as the leading candidate in California crowded governor primary ahead of the vote. In Kalshi pricing...
Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September
In brief Polymarket is pricing in a 74% chance of no change at the next Fed meeting, and just 25% on a quarter-point hike. Kalshi’s...
Data of 54,000 wallet users leaked, CLARITY odds just 10%: Hodler’s Digest
CLARITY odds narrow as bill enters the final straight Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate of the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing in 2026 to...
Galaxy lowers CLARITY Act odds to 10%
Galaxy cited unresolved ethics, stablecoin yield and developer protection issues, along with a narrow Senate window when lawmakers return in September. Galaxy Digital has lowered...
Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Crashed From 82% to Under 20%, Does September 15 Save the Bill?
Polymarket CLARITY Act odds being signed into law this year fell below 20% early this week. The decline followed months of uncertainty over whether the...
Shutdown Odds Sink, but December Still Hangs Over Bitcoin
Kalshi’s contract on US government shutdown odds in 2026 priced YES at roughly 17% in early August; by October 1, 2026, it had dropped steeply...
Bitcoin eyes $63K as US CPI relief sends September Fed rate pause odds to 60%
Bitcoin (BTC) saw weakness around Wednesday’s Wall Street open as markets reacted to key US inflation data. Key points: Bitcoin ignores good news around US...
Congress Pushes Odds of a Government Shutdown to December as Bitcoin Watches
The House passed a stopgap funding bill 220-205 on July 21, moving its proposed government-funding deadline from September 30 to December 4 and placing it...