Strategy's MSTR stock signals 80% rally potential despite Q1 loss

Strategy’s MSTR stock may rally by over 80% in the coming months despite suffering a $12.54 billion net loss in Q1 2026.

Key takeaways:

• Strategy’s MSTR is forming an ascending triangle pattern, pointing to a potential move toward the $350 level.
• Canaccord raised its MSTR price target to $224 from $185, citing Bitcoin’s rebound and Strategy’s financing structure.

MSTR’s textbook bullish reversal setup targets $350

As of Friday, MSTR was trading inside what appeared to be an ascending triangle, a technical pattern formed when the price prints higher lows beneath a flat resistance zone.

Those higher lows are a sign that buyers are getting more confident. Each time MSTR pulls back, it stops falling sooner than before, showing that buyers are stepping in earlier without waiting for a deeper drop.

MSTR weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Ascending triangles typically resolve when the price breaks above the upper trend line and rises by as much as the structure’s maximum height.

Applying this technical rule to MSTR’s chart brings its upside target to around $350 in 2026. The upside target, up about 80% from the current price level, aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line.

Analyst Kevin Fx said that MSTR may rally to the $250–$300 range, citing an inverse-head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern.

MSTR weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Kevin Fx

Conversely, a pullback from the ascending triangle’s upper trendline may push MSTR into a multi-week downtrend toward its lower trend line at around $150. A breakdown below $150 risks invalidating the bullish setups altogether.

Canaccord raises its MSTR price target to $224

Earlier this week, Canaccord, a Canada-based investment banking giant, also raised its MSTR price target to $224 from $185, reiterating its Buy rating.

The investment bank pointed to MSTR’s 80% rebound since February, saying the company had weathered another storm as Bitcoin recovered above $80,000 from near $60,000 lows over the same period.

Source: X

Canaccord also highlighted Strategy’s preferred-share financing model, such as STRC, as an important part of that resilience. The product allows the company to raise fresh capital for Bitcoin purchases without relying as heavily on new common-stock issuance.

Issuing more common MSTR shares can dilute existing shareholders. On the other hand, preferred stock gives Strategy another way to fund its Bitcoin accumulation strategy with less pressure on its core equity.

Related: Samson Mow defends Strategy selling portions of its Bitcoin treasury

Meanwhile, Strategy has increased its Bitcoin exposure for each shareholder. Despite posting a $12.54 billion Q1 loss, it bought 89,599 BTC in the first three months of 2026, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC at an average cost of $75,537.

Source: X

Its BTC-per-share metric also rose 18% year-over-year, showing the company is adding value to each MSTR share in addition to growing its BTC balance sheet.